Title Invasion reproductive numbers for discrete-time models.
Author Olawoyin, Omomayowa; Kribs, Christopher
Journal Infect Dis Model Publication Year/Month 2019
PMID 31016273 PMCID PMC6468161
Affiliation 1.Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington, 411 South Nedderman Drive Box 19408, Arlington, TX 76019, USA.

Although invasion reproductive numbers (IRNs) are utilized frequently in continuous-time models with multiple interacting pathogens, they are yet to be explored in discrete-time systems. Here, we extend the concept of IRNs to discrete-time models by showing how to calculate them for a set of two-pathogen SIS models with coinfection. In our exploration, we address how sequencing events impacts the basic reproductive number (BRN) and IRN. As an illustrative example, our models are applied to rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus co-circulation. Results show that while the BRN is unaffected by variations in the order of events, the IRN differs. Furthermore, our models predict copersistence of multiple pathogen strains under cross-immunity, which is atypical of analogous continuous-time models. This investigation shows that sequencing events has important consequences for the IRN and can drastically alter competition dynamics.

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