BACKGROUND: The relation between heart rate variability (HRV) and occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in paroxysmal AF has been well studied, but there are controversial observations regarding the relation of HRV parameters to the recurrence of chronic AF after cardioversion. HYPOTHESIS: The present study compared HRV parameters of patients with chronic AF on the second day of cardioversion with a healthy control group and investigated their predictive value for AF recurrence. METHODS: Forty-one patients with chronic AF (> 3 months), who had various underlying cardiovascular disorders, were enrolled to the study. Of these, 31 patients were successfully cardioverted by external direct current shock, but 27 patients fulfilled the entry criteria. Twenty healthy subjects served as a control group. On the second day of restoration of sinus rhythm, 24-h Holter recording was obtained and the following time-domain indices of HRV were measured: SDNN (the standard deviation of the mean RR interval expressed in ms), SDANN (the SD of the averages of RR intervals in all 5-min segments of the 24-h recording), rMSSD (the root mean square of differences of successive RR intervals), and pNN50 (the percentage of adjacent RR intervals that differed by more than 50 ms). Patients were followed-up for 6 weeks for recurrence of AF. RESULTS: After cardioversion, SDNN and SDANN were found to be significantly lower in the AF group than in the control group (86.4 +/- 31.7 ms vs. 142.1 +/- 40.2 ms, and 57 +/- 17.4 ms vs. 124.4 +/- 37.7 ms, p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). The indices of vagal modulation of heart rate (rMSS and pNN50) were not different between the AF group and the control group. Recurrence of AF was observed in 15 patients. In these patients, all HRV parameters were significantly depressed compared with those with maintained sinus rhythm. Logistic regression analysis revealed that only decreased pNN50 was an independent predictor of AF relapse (relative risk = 1.5, p = 0.02, 95% confidence interval 1.1-2.2). There was also a trend toward a shortened SDNN as a predictor of AF recurrences. CONCLUSION: Suppressed HRV parameters and decreased vagal tone are probably a risk factor for AF recurrences after cardioversion to sinus rhythm in a specific subset of patients with chronic AF.